Inflation-adjusted movement
Did the story change after inflation, or is it ordinary nominal budget growth?
NJDOE User-Friendly Budgets, 2025-26 latest year. Money changes are converted to 2025 dollars where labeled real or inflation-adjusted. How this budget data works
How to prove this story
A budget brief should leave the reader with a claim that can be checked. This generated checklist keeps the evidence basis, fair comparison, and counter-reading beside the topic before the longer tables.
| Claim job | Evidence that must travel with it | Fair comparison | Block this overread | Open next |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real movement | State whether the movement is CPI-U adjusted and expressed in 2025 dollars. | First loaded UFB year, latest loaded UFB year, county trend, and comparison-group movement. | Nominal dollars and latest-file proposal changes answer different questions. | Statewide trend · comparison movement |
| Per-student anatomy | Separate real operating-budget numerator movement from UFB planning-enrollment denominator movement. | District anatomy beside local peer average and fall-enrollment context. | The arithmetic bridge is not a causal model or a substitute for source-row reporting. | Cost-change anatomy · district report trends |
Statewide shifts after inflation
This is the quickest check against the generic story that budgets simply rose.
| Measure | First loaded year | Latest year | Change | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real operating budget per UFB on-roll | 2019-20: $24,735 | 2025-26: $25,851 | +$1,116 | Statewide operating budget divided by UFB on-roll, converted to 2025 dollars. |
| Mean published comparative cost | 2019-20: $23,286 | 2025-26: $23,591 | +$304 | Unweighted mean of NJDOE comparative-cost rows, converted to 2025 dollars. |
| Local operating revenue share | 2019-20: 63% | 2025-26: 59% | -4 pts | General Fund operating revenue source mix. |
| State operating revenue share | 2019-20: 33% | 2025-26: 35% | +3 pts | General Fund operating revenue source mix. |
| Federal operating revenue share | 2019-20: <1% | 2025-26: <1% | 0 pts | General Fund operating revenue source mix. |
| Other/fund-balance operating revenue share | 2019-20: 5% | 2025-26: 6% | +2 pts | General Fund operating revenue source mix. |
| General current expense share | 2019-20: 84% | 2025-26: 82% | -2 pts | High-level operating-use row as share of proposed operating budget. |
| Charter/Renaissance transfer share | 2019-20: 3% | 2025-26: 4% | +1 pt | High-level transfer rows as share of proposed operating budget. |
| School-based budgeting share | 2019-20: 11% | 2025-26: 10% | 0 pts | High-level contribution row as share of proposed operating budget. |
| Capital outlay scale | 2019-20: 2% | 2025-26: 3% | +1 pt | High-level capital row divided by proposed operating budget. |
| Special schools share | 2019-20: <1% | 2025-26: <1% | 0 pts | High-level special-schools row divided by proposed operating budget. |
| Special revenue fund scale | 2019-20: 6% | 2025-26: 7% | +1 pt | Outside-operating row divided by proposed operating budget as a scale reference. |
| Debt-service fund scale | 2019-20: 3% | 2025-26: 2% | -1 pt | Outside-operating row divided by proposed operating budget as a scale reference. |
Dollar rows are converted to 2025 dollars with CPI-U. Percentage rows are share-point movement.
Per-student arithmetic leads
The arithmetic separates real operating-budget movement from UFB planning-enrollment denominator movement.
| District | Per-student movement | Budget effect | Enrollment effect | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth-Ocean Ed Ser Com | -$733,875 | +$328,230 | -$1.1M | Real per-student decreaseUFB on-roll 23 to 34 |
| Essex Co Ed Serv Comm | -$683,440 | -$674,859 | -$8,581 | Real per-student decreaseUFB on-roll 76 to 81 |
| Northern Region Educational Services Commission | +$105,621 | +$76,509 | +$29,112 | Real operating-budget growthUFB on-roll 107 to 100 |
| South Bergen Jointure Com | +$38,419 | +$39,087 | -$667 | Real operating-budget growthUFB on-roll 328 to 329 |
| Bayshore Jointure Comm | +$36,282 | +$78,738 | -$42,457 | Enrollment growth dampened costUFB on-roll 52 to 71 |
| Lakewood Twp | +$28,503 | +$15,252 | +$13,251 | Enrollment decline amplified costUFB on-roll 5,681 to 4,553 |
| Saddle River Boro | +$24,924 | -$1,781 | +$26,705 | Enrollment decline amplified costUFB on-roll 183 to 130 |
| Mercer County Vocational | -$24,257 | +$3,757 | -$28,014 | Real per-student decreaseUFB on-roll 288 to 472 |
| Roosevelt Boro | +$22,388 | +$2,364 | +$20,024 | Enrollment decline amplified costUFB on-roll 106 to 67 |
| Jamesburg Boro | +$21,664 | +$21,732 | -$68 | Real operating-budget growthUFB on-roll 722 to 723 |
| Atlantic Co Special Serv | -$21,599 | -$14,014 | -$7,585 | Real per-student decreaseUFB on-roll 315 to 360 |
| Long Beach Island | +$20,985 | +$14,017 | +$6,967 | Real operating-budget growthUFB on-roll 239 to 215 |
| Cranbury Twp | +$19,242 | -$3,841 | +$23,084 | Enrollment decline amplified costUFB on-roll 749 to 419 |
| Woodlynne Boro | +$19,129 | +$18,994 | +$135 | Real operating-budget growthUFB on-roll 411 to 410 |
| Bergen Co Special Service | -$18,466 | -$13,382 | -$5,084 | Real per-student decreaseUFB on-roll 561 to 587 |
| Bloomingdale Boro | -$17,299 | -$6,833 | -$10,466 | Real per-student decreaseUFB on-roll 549 to 719 |
| Union Co Ed Serv Comm | +$16,497 | +$37,762 | -$21,265 | Enrollment growth dampened costUFB on-roll 383 to 426 |
| Wildwood Crest Boro | +$16,478 | -$2,604 | +$19,082 | Enrollment decline amplified costUFB on-roll 292 to 196 |
This is an arithmetic bridge, not a causal model. UFB planning enrollment can differ from fall enrollment.
Generated movement leads
These leads point to the districts and peer groups where real movement deserves reporting.
Real spending growth is the numerator story
These districts show the largest increase when latest real operating dollars are held against first-year UFB on-roll. That points to a budget-size change before denominator effects are considered.
- Somerset Co Ed Serv Comm:
- Northern Region Educational Services Commission:
- South Bergen Jointure Com:
- Union Co Ed Serv Comm:
This is arithmetic decomposition, not a causal claim. UFB planning enrollment can differ from fall enrollment on profiles.
Enrollment decline amplifies per-student cost
These districts have the largest positive denominator effect: latest operating dollars are spread across fewer UFB on-roll students than in the first loaded year.
- Northern Region Educational Services Commission:
- Saddle River Boro:
- Cranbury Twp:
- Morris-Union Jointure Com:
This is arithmetic decomposition, not a causal claim. UFB planning enrollment can differ from fall enrollment on profiles.
Enrollment growth dampens the per-student change
These districts show a negative denominator effect: rising UFB on-roll absorbs part of the real operating-budget change when measured per student.
This is arithmetic decomposition, not a causal claim. UFB planning enrollment can differ from fall enrollment on profiles.
Real per-student operating scale fell
These districts moved down after inflation on operating budget per UFB on-roll, even though individual source rows may have moved in different directions.
This is arithmetic decomposition, not a causal claim. UFB planning enrollment can differ from fall enrollment on profiles.