Draft reports

Reports

DraftsEverything in this section is a work in progress, published for transparency rather than as a finished product. Methods and figures may change; nothing here is a verdict on any district.

Analytical reports that go beyond a single district or school — early, and shown while they are still taking shape.

The dip, the recovery, and the decline after

Statewide · fall 2019-20 → 2025-26

The pandemic enrollment dip was modest (−0.98%) and fully recovered by 2023-24 — and the decline since then is already larger than the dip was. Four NJ DOE files, every number verified by independent recomputation, full provenance in a public research notebook.

Budget pressure signals

Statewide · 250 districts

A typed, mechanism-specific read of where NJ districts show budget pressure — deliberately not a health score or a ranking. Financial, structural, and reliability panels, computed the same way for every district.

Six school-funding ideas, reality-checked

SOMSD case study · current through FY2027

A district advocacy package checked against enacted law, legislative analysis, NJDOE methodology, and district data—separating current policy, supported pressure, and impacts the public record cannot price.